Highlights

  • US real GDP growth revised down to an annualized 2.0% (second estimate) in 2Q19, from an annualized 2.1% (advance estimate). Unemployment rate was 3.7% in August 2019, unchanged since June 2019.
  • In 2Q19, real GDP increased by 1.2% and by 1.4% in the EU19 and the EU28, respectively. In July 2019, unemployment rate was 6.3% and 7.5% in the EU19 and the EU28, respectively.
  • Turkish economy contracted by 1.5% y/y in 2Q19 after falling 2.6% y/y in 1Q19.
  • In July 2019, economic growth was 8.1% y/y in Armenia, 6.1% y/y in Georgia, 5.1% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.6% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 1H19, real GDP growth was 2.5% y/y in Azerbaijan and 1.3% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.7% in August 2019, down from 1.8% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.0% in August 2019, unchanged from the previous month.
  • In August 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Russia (4.3%), Georgia (4.9%), Belarus (5.7%), Ukraine (8.8%) and Turkey (15.0%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.5%), and below the target in Armenia (0.6%). Annual inflation was 2.4% in Azerbaijan in August 2019.
  • As of 17 September 2019, monetary policy rate increased by 0.25bp to 9.25% in Kazakhstan and by 0.5bp to 7.0% in Georgia, while it was cut by 0.25bp to 5.5% in Armenia, to 7.0% in Russia and to 8.0% in Azerbaijan, by 0.50bp to 16.5% in Ukraine and by 3.25bp to 16.5% in Turkey. The key rate has remained unchanged in Belarus.
  • As of 17 September 2019, Fitch upgraded Ukraine’s rating to B from B- with a positive outlook and Moody’s upgraded Armenia’s rating to Ba3 from B1 with a stable outlook.


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.