• International visitor growth (tourists and same-day combined) slowed to 4.3% y/y (0.9mn persons) in July-19 after 19.9% y/y growth in Jun-19. This growth was predominantly driven by 11.1% y/y increase in same-day arrivals.  Tourist arrivals slowed but still posted growth of 1.0% y/y in July 2019 despite Russia’s ban on direct flights to Georgia from 8 July 2019. The number of Russian arrivals reduced softer than expected – down 6.4% y/y in July. This was largely compensated by increased Russian arrivals through land border and via alternative transit flights. 
  • Visitors from the EU were up 14.4% y/y to nearly 55k visitors, with Germany (+33.7% y/y) and Poland (+15.7% y/y) driving growth in July.
  • Tourism generated US$ 428mn revenues in July-19 by our estimates, down 1.1% y/y. This figure reflects reduced Russian arrivals via air, which usually are considered high spenders than those crossing the land border. In 7M19, tourism revenues stood at US$ 1.9bn, up 5.0% y/y. We expect tourism revenues to be flat y/y in 2H19 at US$ 1.9bn as we estimate tourism revenue loss of US$ 200mn in 2019 from reduced Russian arrivals. For the full 2019 year we project tourism revenues at US$ 3.4bn


Please see the full note here, which brings together tourist arrival data for reporting month, most recent statistical information available in the sector and 2019 forecast.