Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was revised down to an annualized 3.1% (2nd estimate) in 1Q19 from 3.2% initial estimate. Unemployment rate was 3.6% in May 2019, unchanged from previous month.
  • Turkish economy contracted by 2.6% y/y in 1Q19, after falling 3.0% y/y in 4Q18.
  • In April 2019, economic growth was 9.2% y/y in Armenia, 5.1% y/y in Georgia, 3.6% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.7% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 4M19, real GDP growth was 2.1% y/y in Azerbaijan and 1.2% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.8% in May 2019, down from 2.0% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.2% in May 2019, down from 1.7% in April 2019.
  • In May 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (4.7%), Russia (5.1%), Belarus (6.2%), Ukraine (9.6%) and Turkey (18.7%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.3%), and below the target in Armenia (2.8%). Annual inflation was 2.8% in Azerbaijan in May 2019.
  • Monetary policy rate was reduced by 0.25bp to 8.5% in Azerbaijan, by 0.25bp to 7.5% in Russia and has remained unchanged in other countries as of 18 June 2019.
  • Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Turkey to B1 from Ba3 keeping negative outlook on 14 June 2019.


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.