Highlights

  • Real GDP in the US grew at a 2.6% annualized rate (initial estimate) in 4Q18 after 3.4% growth in 3Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.8% in February 2019, down from 4.0% in previous month.
  • EU19 real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in 4Q18 after 1.6% y/y growth in 3Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was unchanged at 7.8% in January 2019.
  • Turkish economy contracted by 3.0% y/y in 4Q18, bringing 2018 real GDP growth at 2.6% y/y.
  • In January 2019, economic growth was 6.0% y/y in Armenia, 3.5% y/y in Georgia, 2.9% y/y in Kazakhstan, 2.9% y/y in Azerbaijan, 0.7% y/y in Belarus and 0.2% y/y in Russia, based on rapid estimates.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.5% in February 2019, down from 1.6% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.5% in February 2019, up from 1.4% in January 2019.
  • In February 2019, annual inflation was below the target level in Armenia (1.9%) and Georgia (2.3%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.8%), and above the target in Russia (5.2%), Belarus (6.2%), Ukraine (8.8%) and Turkey (19.7%). Annual inflation was 2.2% in Azerbaijan.
  • As of 19 March 2019, monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.5% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 9.0% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • In February 2019, Fitch upgraded Georgia’s sovereign credit rating to BB from BB-, with stable outlook.


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.