Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was an annualized 3.5% y/y (advance estimate) in 3Q18, after an annualized 4.2% y/y growth in 2Q18. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in October 2018.
  • Real GDP growth in EU19 came in at 1.7% y/y in 3Q18, after 2.1% y/y in 2Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was unchanged at 8.1% in September 2018.
  • China’s economy grew by 6.5% y/y in 3Q18, 0.2ppts lower than in 2Q18.
  • Economic growth accelerated and came in at 6.5% y/y in Kazakhstan and 5.6% y/y in Georgia, while it slowed to 0.6% y/y in Russia and was negative 0.1% y/y in Armenia in September 2018, based on rapid estimates. In 9M18, real GDP growth was 3.7% y/y in Belarus and 0.8% y/y in Azerbaijan.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 2.5% in October 2018, up from 2.3% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 2.2% in October 2018, up from 2.1% in September 2018.
  • In October 2018, annual inflation was below the target level in Georgia (2.3%), Armenia (2.8%), Russia (3.5%) and Belarus (4.9%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.3%), and above the target in Ukraine (9.5%) and Turkey (25.2%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut to 9.75% (from 10.0%) in Azerbaijan and it increased to 9.25% (from 9.0%) in Kazakhstan in October 2018. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.