Electricity consumption expected to increase by 6.9% y/y in 2018. The updated annual forecast of 2018 electricity balance was issued on May 16, 2018. Main modifications are related to export and import amounts, hydro generation and 4M figures (forecasted replaced by actuals). According to the modified annual forecast for 2018: Electricity consumption expected to reach 12.7TWh (growth revised down to 6.9% y/y from 7.1%y/y in previous edition); Import expected to reach 1.3TWh, which is 12.4% y/y reduction compared to initial forecast of 30.8% y/y increase; Export planned at 0.5TWh. GSE should define the exporter companies and export directions by the public auctions. So far, the most popular direction within exporters remains Turkey and Armenia is second most popular market.
Electricity consumption increased by 6.7% y/y to 4.3TWh in 4M18. The increase was mainly driven by the 8.4%y/y growth in consumption of distribution licensees due to addition of new commercial subscribers (Energo-pro’s consumption was up by 9.7% y/y and Telasi’s was up by 6.1% y/y). Consumption by Eligible consumers and Abkhazian region was down respectively by 8.5% y/y and 5.0% y/y in 4M18.
Domestic generation was up by 20.6% y/y in 4M18, mainly driven by 39.8%y/y increase in hydro generation. This dramatic increase in hydro generation can be explained by last year’s low base and by the good hydrological conditions. Surplus in hydro Generation (19.5% over the planned level) in 4M18 reduced thermal generation (-16.8%y/y) and imports (-38.9%y/y), both being significantly below the planned levels (17.8% and 40.6% respectively).
Electricity imports stood at 0.5TWh (US$ 27.9mn) in 4M18. The 88.6% of total imports came from Azerbaijan, while the rest came from Turkey (6.7%) and Russia (3.3%). Unexpected surplus in hydro generation also resulted in unexpectedly early exports of electricity. Export of electricity started in second half of April and reached 61.7GWh (US$ 1.8mn) in 4M18.
