International reserves at US$ 4.1bn in March 2021
Gross international reserves increased by 20.6% y/y to US$ 4.1bn in March 2021 according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves were up by 0.6% (+US$ 25.2mn). Notably, NBG sold US$ 40mn in March via FX auction. Changes in reserves were attributed to the government and banking sector FX operations, and/or asset revaluation.
International arrivals down 73.4% y/y in March 2021
Total international arrivals (tourists and same-day arrivals) to Georgia were down 73.4% y/y to 55.9k persons, according to GNTA, as COVID-19 pandemic weighs on international travel. Overall, in 1Q21, total international arrivals stood at 130.2k (-88.4% y/y) persons. Meanwhile, tourism revenues stood at US$ 50.1mn (-88.3% y/y) in 1Q21, by our estimates.
IMF forecasts 3.5% GDP growth in Georgia for 2021
Based on IMF’s April 2021 World Economic Outlook, global growth is projected at 6.0%, which is stronger compared to the October 2020 projection. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in 2H21, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility. Notably, IMF revised downwards Georgia’s 2021 growth forecasts to 3.5%, from 4.3% projection in December 2020. The IMF projects 5.4% annual average real GDP growth in Georgia over 2022-26.
