Highlights

  • In 4Q16, GDP growth in the USA came in at 1.9% q/q (annualized), below expectations, while Euro Zone growth was above market expectations at 1.8% y/y (annualized).
  • In January 2017, inflation in the Euro Zone came in at 1.8% y/y, above market expectations.
  • According to short-term indicators, growth accelerated in Kazakhstan (+5.0% y/y), but slowed in Georgia (+0.3% y/y) in December 2016. Following positive growth in November 2016, growth in Armenia returned to negative territory (-0.1% y/y) in December 2016.
  • Negative growth persisted in Azerbaijan (-3.8% y/y) and Belarus (-2.6% y/y) in FY16.
  • Compared to the previous month, inflation retreated in December 2016 in Azerbaijan (+15.5% y/y), Belarus (+10.6% y/y), Kazakhstan (+8.5% y/y), and Russia (+5.4% y/y). Prices were up 8.5% y/y in Turkey and 12.4% y/y in Ukraine. Inflation in Georgia was at 1.8% y/y, while in Armenia it retreated further into negative territory (-1.1% y/y).
  • Monetary policy rate was raised in Georgia (to 6.75%, up 0.25ppts) and lowered in Belarus (to 17.0%, down 1.0ppts).

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.