IMF revised Azerbaijan’s growth forecast for 2016 from -3.0% to -2.4%
Azerbaijan’s economy is forecast to contract 2.4% in 2016 and return to growth in 2017, according to the IMF. Over the medium term, the IMF expects a 2.5-2.8% growth rate, but believes that implementation of strong structural reforms can increase growth potential to 4-5%.
Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on Azerbaijan’s banking sector
According to the rating agency, low oil prices, depreciation, and the economic recession will continue to have a negative effect on the banking sector, given the high level of outstanding foreign currency loans. As a result, Moody’s maintained its negative outlook on the banking sector for the next 12-18 months.
CBAR reserves up 4.0% m/m to US$ 4.3bn
Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic bought US$ 162.0mn over the ten auctions held in May 2016. The market interventions, along with revaluation of assets, led to m/m increases in reserves for the third month in a row. In May 2016, reserves were up by US$ 163.7mn m/m (+4.0% m/m) to US$ 4.3bn, while on an annual basis, reserves were down 49.2% y/y.
SOCAR crude oil exports up 6.4% y/y in May 2016
In May 2016, SOCAR exported 1.8mn tons of crude oil (+6.4% y/y), the highest level in the last five months. The average monthly price for BTC FOB Ceyhan oil was up 11.8% m/m to US$ 48.1/bbl in May 2016 and up 48.8% from the January low.
