Total investment for transmission projects is estimated at EUR 683.9mn over 2018-2028. The Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) for 2018-2028 approved on 28 December 2017 incorporates revised forecasts of electricity consumption growth, and updated pipelines of power plant and transmission network projects. The TYNDP targets 49% of total investment to be spent over 2018-2020, mostly financed by credits from IFIs (KfW, EBRD, WB, ADB, EU-NIF) and GSE’s own resources. Under the previous edition of TYNDP total estimated investment stood at EUR 735.4mn, and the decrease largely reflects already implemented projects in 2017. Commissioning dates for cross-border transmission projects were revised to 2020 from 2018 for 400kV line Marneuli (Armenia) and 154kV line Batumi-Muratli (Turkey), to 2021 from 2020 for 400kV line Akhaltsikhe-Tortum (Turkey) and to 2023 from 2021 for 500kV line Stepantsminda (Russia).
Forecast for electricity consumption growth was revised upwards in TYNDP 2018-2028. The annual consumption growth rates in the pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenarios are revised upwards from 1.0%, 3.5% and 5.0% to 3.0%, 5.0% and 7.0%, respectively. The generation scenarios vary by the assumed rates of commissioning for the power plant projects at different stages of development. The base case scenario is assumed to be L3G3, with consumption growth rate at 7.0% (reaching 27.9TWh in 2029) and full utilization of HPPs under construction, licensing and development stages, resulting in 32.3TWh total domestic generation in 2029. The base case scenario gives approximately 4.4TWh of net exports in 2029.
LEAP model for Georgia forecasts 3.9% annual average growth of domestic consumption over 2015-2030. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was developed by Energy Efficiency Center Georgia (EEC), under the USAID’s Governing for Growth (G4G) grant project “Electricity Demand Forecasting Model”, enabling forecasting of monthly electricity demand and peak loads. The model uses a bottom-up approach, evaluating the end-use in household, commercial and public services, industry, transport, agriculture, forestry and fishing, crypto-currency mining, Abkhazian region and the losses of the system.
Renewable energy primary law for Georgia is expected to be adopted in August, 2018. The draft is being prepared with the assistance of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Danish consortium NVE-NIRAS. The project aims to fulfill Georgia’s obligation under Energy Community treaty towards implementation of directive N2009/28/EC. The directive requests contracting parties to set and therefore achieve national goals for the share of renewable energy into the total sources consumed in transport, electricity, heating and cooling in 2020. The law should define states’ policy principles, missions, and general requirements, also promote the schemes supporting renewable energy.
Domestic electricity consumption in January, 2018 increased 7.6% y/y to 1.2TWh, slightly below the planned level (-2.3%). The growth was driven by 11.9% increase in consumption by distribution licensees: consumption by Energo-Pro Georgia subscribers, including former Kakheti Energy Distribution subscribers, increased 17.2% y/y, from relatively low level in January 2017 (2.7%y/y); Telasi consumption was up 3.6% y/y, albeit from a high base in January 2017 (+10.5% y/y). Electricity usage by eligible consumers showed slight increase (+0.9%y/y), while Abkhazian regions consumption was down 1.9%y/y.
Electricity generated by domestic sources in January, 2018 increased by 6.1% y/y to 1.0TWh, slightly above (+2.2%) the planned level. Hydro generation showed significant increase (+19.9%y/y) from a low base (-10.4%y/y) in January, 2017. Enguri/Vardnili generation was slightly down 2.7% y/y, while generation of other regulated and deregulated HPPs increased 43.9% y/y and 34.4% y/y, respectively. Thermal generation declined 14.0% y/y, which was 18.3% below the planned level. Wind generation increased 9.6%y/y to 7.1GWh and contributed 0.6% of total supply. Electricity import increased 12.9% y/y to 202.1GWh, and accounted for 16.6% of total electricity supplied to the grid in January 2018. Notably, electricity import was 22.5% below the planned level. 92.2% of imported electricity came from Azerbaijan, while the rest came from Russia (4.0%) and Armenia (3.7%).
