Highlights

  • Better than expected US GDP growth in 3Q16 further increased the likelihood of a FED rate hike in December 2016.
  • According to preliminary data, growth remained in negative territory in Azerbaijan and Belarus, with their respective economies contracting 3.9% and 2.9% y/y in 9M16. Contraction in Armenia deepened from 0.3% y/y in August 2016 to 2.4% y/y in September 2016. The Russian economy contracted 0.7% y/y in September 2016, following marginal growth in the previous month.
  • Growth in Georgia slowed from 2.9% y/y in the previous month to 1.5% y/y in September, while growth in Kazakhstan and Ukraine sped up from 0.2% y/y and 2.7% y/y in August 2016 to 2.3% y/y and 5.8% y/y in September 2016, respectively.
  • Double-digit inflation persisted in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Belarus. Inflation retreated further in Russia and Ukraine from 6.8% y/y and 8.4% y/y in August 2016 to 6.4% y/y and 7.9% y/y in September 2016, respectively. In Georgia, prices were almost flat at 0.1% y/y in September 2016, while prices in Armenia declined 1.9% y/y for the second month in a row.
     

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.