Money transfers hit an all-time high, up 28.7% y/y in September 2020
In September 2020, money transfers increased by 28.7% y/y to US$ 192.7mn, after growing 25.8% y/y in the previous month, according to NBG. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased strongly from Italy (+38.6% y/y, 15.2% of total), USA (+47.2% y/y, 11.8% of total) and Greece (+34.7% y/y, 11.1% of total). Meanwhile, remittances declined from Russia (-3.2% y/y, 18.2% of total). Overall, in 9M20 money transfers were up 6.2% y/y to US$ 1.3bn.
Exports surprised on the upside, up 8.7% y/y in September 2020
In September 2020, trade deficit narrowed by 19.8% y/y to US$ 399.3mn according to Geostat’s preliminary figures. Exports increased by 8.6% y/y to US$ 332.0mn, posting the first expansion in 8 months. Imports reduction also slowed to 9.0% y/y to US$ 731.3mn in September. In 9M20, trade deficit was down 18.5% y/y to US$ 3.3bn as exports decreased by 12.1% y/y and imports were down 15.9% y/y. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on October 19, 2020.
International arrivals down 93.6% y/y in September 2020
Total international arrivals (tourists and same-day arrivals) to Georgia was down 93.6% y/y to c.50.5k persons in September 2020 according to GNTA, as borders remained closed for international travel due to COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, in 9M20, total international arrivals stood at 1.4mn (-77.1% y/y), of which tourist arrivals reached 0.96mn (-75.9% y/y) persons. Meanwhile, based on NBG, tourism revenues stood at US$ 499.1mn (-80.7% y/y) in 9M20.
IMF projects growth to rebound to 5.0% in Georgia in 2021
According to the IMF’s October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO), global growth is expected to decline by 4.4% in 2020, which is 0.5ppts upgrade from the June 2020 WEO forecasts. Global growth is projected at 5.2% in 2021, a little lower than in the June 2020 WEO update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020 and consistent with expectations of persistent social distancing. Notably, IMF projects Georgian economy to contract by 5.0% in 2020 and rebound to 5.0% growth in 2021. Georgia’s economic growth is expected to gradually accelerate to about 5.6% over 2022-2025.
