Real GDP grew 1.1% in 2015
In 2015, Azerbaijan’s real GDP posted a 1.1% y/y growth rate, the slowest level since 1995, excluding 0.1% y/y growth in 2011.
Non-oil GDP, constrained by 13.4% y/y contraction in construction, grew 1.1% y/y in 2015, the lowest rate since the start of record keeping on non-oil GDP growth rates in 2000. Transportation and storage was another sector that had a negative contribution to growth, while trade (+10.9% y/y), manufacturing (+7.7% y/y), and agriculture (+6.6% y/y) were the main drivers of growth.
Oil GDP grew 1.2% y/y in 2015, recovering from the low base of the previous year and posting the highest growth rate of the last 5 years.
Azerbaijan’s GDP in nominal US$ terms is down 29.6% y/y in 2015
Falling oil prices and radical devaluations in 2015 resulted in GDP in nominal US$ terms in Azerbaijan to contract from US$ 75.2bn in 2014 to US$ 53.0bn in 2015 (-29.6%). This has resulted in a decline in GDP per capita from US$ 7,936 in 2014 to US$ 5,559 in 2015.
Consolidated budget posted AZN 2.9bn (5.3% of GDP) deficit in 2015
According to the Ministry of Finance, Azerbaijan’s consolidated budget revenue was AZN 18.2bn, 12.1% less than budgeted and expenditure was AZN 21.1bn, 18.7% less than budgeted. The resulting deficit at AZN 2.9bn (5.3% of GDP) was 44.9% lower than originally budgeted.
Central Bank reserves fell to US$ 5.0bn in December 2015
Central Bank reserves declined further in December 2015 to US$ 5.0bn (-19.7% m/m), the lowest level since mid-2009. Overall, the Central Bank lost US$ 8.7bn in 2015 and US$ 10.2bn since the peak in July 2014.
Trade surplus declined to US$ 2.2bn in 2015
According to the Customs Committee, Azerbaijan’s manufacturing exports decreased 47.7% y/y in 2015 to US$ 11.4bn, while imports increased 0.4% y/y to US$ 9.2bn. As a result, the trade surplus narrowed from US$ 12.6bn in 2014 to US$ 2.2bn in 2015 (-82.6% y/y).
