Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was up to an annualized 4.1% y/y (advance estimate) in 2Q18 from an annualized 2.2% y/y recorded in 1Q18. In July 2018, unemployment rate decreased by 0.1ppts to 3.9% from 4.0% in previous month. GDP growth in EU19 was down to 2.1% y/y in 2Q18 from 2.5% y/y in 1Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 8.3% in June 2018 down from 8.4% in May 2018. China’s economy grew by 6.7% y/y in 2Q18, 0.1ppts lower than in 1Q18.
  • Based on rapid estimates, in June 2018 economic growth came in at 9.6% y/y in Armenia, 5.3% y/y in Kazakhstan, 4.0% y/y in Georgia and 1.5% y/y in Russia. In 1H18, real GDP growth was 4.5% y/y in Belarus and 1.3% y/y in Azerbaijan.
  • In July 2018, annual inflation in the US was 2.9% unchanged from previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 2.1% in July 2018 up from 2.0% in June 2018. 
  • In July 2018, annual inflation was below to the target level in Armenia (2.3%), Russia (2.5%), Georgia (2.8%) and Belarus (4.1%); inflation was within the target in Kazakhstan (5.9%), and above the target in Ukraine (8.9%) and Turkey (15.9%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut to 7.0% (from 7.25%) in Georgia and increased to 17.5% (from 17.0%) in Ukraine in July 2018. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • In July 2018, Fitch downgraded both foreign and local sovereign credit ratings for Turkey to BB from BB+ and to BB+ from BBB-, respectively and the outlook was revised to negative from stable.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.