Highlights

  • US real GDP growth slowed to an annualized 2.1% (advance estimate) in 2Q19, after 3.1% growth in 1Q19. Unemployment rate was 3.7% in July 2019, unchanged from the previous month.
  • EU19 real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in 2Q19 after 1.2% y/y growth in 1Q19. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 7.5% in June 2019, down from 7.6% in the previous month.
  • In June 2019, economic growth was 5.0% y/y in Georgia, 4.3% y/y in Kazakhstan, 3.4% y/y in Armenia and 1.9% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 1H19, real GDP growth was 2.4% y/y in Azerbaijan and 0.9% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.8% in July 2019, up from 1.6% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.1% in July 2019, down from 1.3% in June 2019.
  • In July 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (4.6%), Russia (4.6%), Belarus (6.0%), Ukraine (9.1%) and Turkey (16.7%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.4%), and below the target in Armenia (1.7%). Annual inflation was 3.7% in Azerbaijan in July 2019.
  • As of 19 August 2019, monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 8.25% in Azerbaijan and to 7.25% in Russia, by 0.50bp to 9.5% in Belarus and to 17.0% in Ukraine and by 4.25bp to 19.75% in Turkey. Key rate has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Fitch reaffirmed Georgia’s rating at BB with a stable outlook and upgraded Russia’s rating to BBB from BBB- with a stable outlook in August 2019.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.