Highlights

  • Inflation in the USA came in at 2.7% y/y in February 2017, up from 2.5% y/y in the previous month and well above the FED target rate. Following a 2.0% y/y increase in February 2017, inflation in the Euro zone retreated to 1.5% y/y in March 2017.
  • Growth in Turkey and Russia came in at 3.5% y/y and 0.3% y/y, respectively, in 4Q16.
  • According to short-term indicators, relatively strong growth continued in Armenia (+6.0% y/y), Georgia (+4.4% y/y), and Kazakhstan (+3.7% y/y) in February 2017.
  • In Azerbaijan growth retreated to 0.4% y/y, while in Belarus GDP contracted 1.0% y/y in 2M17.
  • In Ukraine growth likely weakened as industrial output turned negative (-4.6% y/y), agricultural output remained in negative territory, and construction production index increased marginally.
  • Compared to the previous month, inflation in February 2017 increased in Ukraine (+14.2% y/y), Azerbaijan (+13.0% y/y), Turkey (+10.1% y/y), and Georgia (+5.5% y/y).
  • Compared to the previous month, inflation in February 2017 was broadly flat in Kazakhstan (+7.8% y/y), while retreating in Russia (+4.6% y/y) and Belarus (+7.0% y/y). Armenia remained in deflationary territory, with prices down 0.2% y/y in February 2017.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.