Highlights

  • 4Q17 US GDP growth was revised up to an annualized 2.9% y/y (3rd estimate) from an annualized 2.5% y/y (2nd estimate). The growth was driven by personal consumption expenditures, fixed investments, exports and government spending. 
  • Based on rapid estimates, in February 2018 economic growth came in at 7.3% y/y in Armenia, 5.6% y/y in Kazakhstan, 5.5% y/y in Georgia and 1.5% y/y in Russia. In 2M18, GDP was up 5.6% y/y in Belarus and 1.3% y/y in Azerbaijan. Economic growth in Turkey came in at 7.3% y/y in 4Q17. 
  • In February 2018, annual inflation in the US was up 2.2% from 2.1% in the previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was up to 1.4% in March 2018 from 1.1% in February 2018.
  • In March 2018, annual inflation was close to the target level in Georgia (2.8%), Kazakhstan (6.6%), Armenia (3.7%); Inflation was below the target in Russia (2.4%) and above the target in Turkey (10.2%) and Ukraine (13.2%). In February 2018, annual inflation retreated to 3.9% in Azerbaijan and 4.9% in Belarus.
  • Russian central bank cut monetary policy rate to 7.25% from 7.5% in March 2018. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Fitch affirmed Georgia’s sovereign credit rating at BB- and revised the Outlook to positive from stable, Moody’s upgraded Belarus credit rating to B3 from Caa1 and Moody’s revised Armenia’s Outlook to positive from stable in March 2018.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.