Highlights
• US real GDP growth was revised upward to an annualized 2.1% (second estimate) from an annualized 2.0% (advance estimate) in 3Q19. Annual inflation in the US was 2.1% in November 2019, up from 1.8% in previous month. Unemployment rate was 3.5% in November 2019, down from 3.6% in previous month. Target range for the federal funds rate was kept unchanged at 1.5%-1.75% in December 2019 in line with expectations.
• EU19 real GDP growth was 1.2% y/y in 3Q19. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.0% in November 2019, up from 0.7% in previous month. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 7.5% in October 2019, unchanged from previous month. In December 2019, ECB kept the interest rate unchanged on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively.
• Turkish economy increased by 0.9% y/y in 3Q19 after 1.6% y/y reduction in 2Q19.
• In October 2019, economic growth was 7.7% y/y in Armenia, 5.7% y/y in Georgia, 5.4% y/y in Kazakhstan and 3.1% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 10M19, growth was 2.1% y/y in Azerbaijan and 1.1% y/y in Belarus.
• In November 2019, annual inflation was above the target range in Georgia (7.0%) and Turkey (10.6%); inflation was below the target in Armenia (1.0%) and in Russia (3.5%), while it was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.4%) and close to the target in Ukraine (5.1% y/y). Annual inflation was 2.4% in Azerbaijan in November 2019.
• As of 19 December 2019, monetary policy rate increased by 50 basis points to 9.0% in Georgia, while it was cut by 25 basis points to 7.5% in Azerbaijan and to 6.25% in Russia, by 50 basis points to 9.0% in Belarus, by 200 basis points to 12.0% in Turkey and to 13.5% in Ukraine.
• In November 2019, Fitch upgraded Armenia’s rating to BB- from B+ with a stable outlook.
Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine
