Highlights

  • US GDP in 3Q17 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% y/y (‘advance’ estimate) after expanding 3.1% y/y in 2Q17. The growth reflected increases in consumer spending, inventory and business investments, and export. GDP growth in EU19 was higher at 2.5% y/y in 3Q17 after 2.3% in 2Q17 and 2.0% in 1Q17. The Chinese economy grew 6.8% y/y in 3Q17.
  • Based on rapid estimates, economic growth in September 2017 came in at 6.0% y/y in Kazakhstan, 5.0% y/y in Georgia, 2.5% y/y in Armenia, and 2.0% y/y in Russia. In 9M17, GDP was up 1.7% y/y in Belarus and down 0.6% y/y in Azerbaijan.
  • Annual inflation in the US was up to 2.2% in September 2017 from 1.9% in the previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was down to 1.4% in October 2017 from 1.5% in September 2017.
  • In October 2017, annual inflation increased in Turkey (11.9%), Kazakhstan (7.7%), Georgia (6.4%), and Armenia (1.2%) and decreased in Russia (2.7%). September 2017 figures indicate an increase in annual inflation to 16.4% in Ukraine and decreases to 13.1% and 4.9% in Azerbaijan and Belarus, respectively.
  • In October 2017, in response to low inflation, the Russian and Belarusian central banks lowered monetary policy rates further to 8.25% and 11.0%, respectively, while the Ukrainian central bank raised its monetary policy rate to 13.5%, given increased price pressure. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.