Highlights

  • US real GDP growth came in at 1.9% annualized rate (advance estimate) in 3Q19 after 2.0% growth in 2Q19. Annual inflation in the US was 1.8% in October 2019, up from 1.7% in the previous month. Unemployment rate was 3.6% in October 2019, up from 3.5% in the previous month. Target range for the federal funds rate was lowered to 1.5%-1.75% in October 2019.
  • EU19 real GDP growth was 1.2% y/y in 3Q19 unchanged from 2Q19. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 0.7% in October 2019, down from 0.8% in the previous month. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 7.5% in September 2019, unchanged from the previous month. In October 2019, ECB kept the interest rate unchanged on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50%, respectively.
  • Chinese economy increased by 6.0% y/y in 3Q19 after growing 6.2% y/y in 2Q19.
  • In September 2019, economic growth was 7.5% y/y in Armenia, 5.2% y/y in Georgia, 4.1% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.9% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 9M19, growth was 3.8% y/y in Ukraine, 2.5% y/y in Azerbaijan and 1.0% y/y in Belarus.
  • In October 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Belarus (5.3%), Ukraine (6.5%), Georgia (6.9%) and Turkey (8.6%); inflation was below the target in Armenia (0.9%) and in Russia (3.8%), while it was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.5%). Annual inflation was 2.7% in Azerbaijan in October 2019.
  • In October 2019, monetary policy rate increased by 100 basis points to 8.5% in Georgia, while it reduced by 25 basis points to 7.75% in Azerbaijan, by 50 basis points to 6.5% in Russia, by 100 basis points to 15.5% in Ukraine, by 250 basis points to 14.0% in Turkey and has remained unchanged in other countries.

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Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.