Consolidated budget posts surplus at 3.8% of GDP in 1H16
Helped by non-oil taxes and customs receipts, consolidated budget revenues in Azerbaijan in 1H16 were up 2.5% y/y to AZN 9.3bn, while expenditures were down 17.0% y/y to AZN 8.2bn. As a result, consolidated budget posted a surplus of AZN 1.0bn or 3.8% of GDP (from a deficit of AZN 0.9bn or 3.4% of GDP in 1H15). Non-oil revenues were up 17.3% y/y to AZN 4.6bn, resulting in a non-oil budget deficit of AZN 3.7bn or 20.8% of non-oil GDP in 1H16.
In quarterly terms, consolidated revenues were up 2.6% y/y in 2Q16, while expenditures were down 1.3% y/y, leading to a deficit of AZN 0.1bn or 0.6% of GDP. Non-oil revenues were up 16.7% y/y in 2Q16, leading to a deficit of AZN 2.4bn or 26.0% of non-oil GDP, compared to a deficit of 30.5% of non-oil GDP in 2Q15.
SOFAZ budget posted a surplus of AZN 1.7bn
State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) revenues were slightly down (-1.6% y/y) in 1H16 to AZN 4.0bn, while expenditures were down 44.2% y/y to AZN 2.3bn, leading to an AZN 1.7bn surplus. In quarterly terms, SOFAZ revenues were down 2.9% to AZN 2.0bn, while expenditures plunged 81.8% y/y to AZN 0.3bn due to a significant drop in transfers to the state budget (from AZN 1.6bn in 2Q15 to AZN 0.1bn in 2Q16).
SOFAZ reserves up 2.5% q/q to US$ 35.1bn
While SOFAZ reserves were slightly down (-1.9% y/y) in 2Q16 in annual terms, recent surpluses in its budget lead to a growth in reserves compared to 1Q16. At US$ 35.1bn, SOFAZ reserves were up 2.5% q/q and up 4.6% since the end of 2015.
Trade balance in surplus in June 2016 following three months of deficit
In June 2016, exports from Azerbaijan were down 18.6% y/y to US$ 772.5mn, while imports were up 13.1% y/y to US$ 716.0mn, resulting in a US$ 56.5mn surplus after three consecutive months of deficit. In 1H16, however, exports were down 38.7% y/y, and imports were down 14.0% y/y, resulting in a US$ 225.8mn deficit.
Non-mineral exports were down 9.0% y/y in June 2016 and down 33.8% y/y in 1H16. The decline in June was driven by a 16.0% y/y fall in exports of vegetable products and a 37.3% y/y fall in exports of foodstuff. Positive contribution to exports came from a 46.9% y/y increase in metal exports and a 27.5% y/y increase in chemical exports.
The growth in imports in June 2016 was driven by increases in imports of vegetable products (+183.4% y/y), mineral products (+226.7% y/y), plastics (+116.1% y/y) and textiles (+318.0% y/y).
