Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was revised up to an annualized 4.2% y/y (second estimate) from an annualized 4.1% y/y (advance estimate) in 2Q18. In August 2018, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%. Turkey’s economy grew by 5.2% y/y in 2Q18 after growing 7.3% y/y in 1Q18.
  • Based on rapid estimates, in July 2018, economic growth came in at 11.1% y/y in Armenia, 4.6% y/y in Georgia, 3.8% y/y in Kazakhstan, and 2.8% y/y in Russia. In 7M18, real GDP growth was 4.4% y/y in Belarus and 0.2% y/y in Azerbaijan.
  • In August 2018, annual inflation in the US was 2.7% down from 2.9% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 2.0% in August 2018 down from 2.1% in July 2018.
  • In August 2018, annual inflation was close to the target level in Georgia (3.1%), Russia (3.1%) and Armenia (3.3%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (6.0%), and above the target in Ukraine (9.0%) and Turkey (17.9%); inflation was 2.0% in Azerbaijan.
  • Monetary policy rate increased to 7.5% (from 7.25%) in Russia, 18.0% (from 17.5%) in Ukraine and 24.0% (from 17.75%) in Turkey as of September 18, 2018. The policy rate has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • In August 2018, Moody’s and S&P downgraded sovereign credit ratings for Turkey: 1) Moody’s lowered credit rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and the outlook was revised to negative from stable, and 2) S&P lowered credit rating to B+ from BB- (for foreign currency) and to BB- from BB (for local currency) and the outlook remained unchanged at stable.


Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.