Exports up 25.2% y/y in November 2019
Exports surged 25.2% y/y to a record high US$ 345.9mn in November 2019, imports also were up 4.2% y/y to US$ 782.7mn, while the trade deficit decreased by 8.0% y/y to US$ 436.8mn, according to Geostat’s preliminary figures. In 11M19, trade deficit was down 10.3% y/y to US$ 4.7bn as exports increased by 11.7% y/y to US$ 3.4bn and imports were down 2.3% y/y to US$ 8.1bn. Detailed foreign trade statistics will be available on December 19, 2019.
Money transfers up 13.3% y/y in November 2019
Money transfers increased 13.3% y/y to US$ 151.0mn in November 2019, after growing 11.5% y/y in previous month, according to NBG. Money transfers were up from all major countries, in particular from Russia (+0.3% y/y, 25.1% of total), Italy (+18.8% y/y, 13.1% of total), Greece (+8.3% y/y, 10.5% of total), USA (+10.8% y/y, 9.6% of total) and Israel (+5.6% y/y, 9.1% of total). Overall, in 11M19 money transfers were up 9.3% y/y to US$ 1.6bn.
FDI up in 3Q19
FDI increased by 13.7% y/y to US$ 417.3mn in 3Q19, according to Geostat’s preliminary figures. The financial sector was the largest FDI recipient at US$ 96.0mn (+470.5% y/y), followed by manufacturing at US$ 49.3mn (-14.1% y/y), hotels and restaurants at US$ 45.7mn (+1.6% y/y), construction at US$ 43.4mn (+65.0% y/y), energy sector at US$ 39.7mn (flat y/y) and real estate at US$ 30.1mn (-38.2% y/y). UK topped the list of investors with US$ 78.4mn, followed by Netherlands, Turkey, China and USA. Overall, FDI was down 16.9% y/y in 9M19.
NBG increased its policy rate by 0.5ppts to 9.0%
At its meeting on 11 December 2019, NBG’s monetary policy committee increased the policy rate by 0.5ppts to 9.0%, after increasing the rate by 2.0ppts in September-October. The annual inflation came in at 7.0% in November 2019, affected by the increased pass-through from the nominal exchange rate depreciation along with one-off factors. NBG noted that despite the currency appreciation observed during the last few days, the GEL’s nominal effective exchange rate remains undervalued and puts pressures on inflation expectations. According to NBG, the inflation will start to decline from March 2020 and approach the target by end of 2020. NBG also noted that it will continue to monitor the developments in the economy and financial markets and will use relevant measures to ensure price stability. Next monetary committee meeting will take place on 29 January 2020.
