Real GDP grew 3.0% y/y in October 2015 and 2.8% y/y in 10M15
Georgia’s real GDP grew 3.0% y/y in October 2015 (real growth was 3.5% y/y in October 2014), according to GeoStat’s rapid estimates. As a result, output growth averaged 2.8% y/y in 10M15. Monthly rapid estimates are based on VAT turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics.
Business sector supported strong job creation in 3Q15
In 3Q15, production of goods and services by the business sector grew 10.6% y/y to GEL 7.1bn, with industry, trade, construction, and transport and communications sectors accounting for 80.7% of total production, according to GeoStat. Number of employed persons increased 9.3% y/y (+48.4 thousand persons) in 3Q15, with strong job creation in trade (+20.7% y/y), construction (+6.8% y/y), transport and communications (+8.3% y/y), real estate (+10.1% y/y), and hotels and restaurants (+20.5% y/y) sectors contributing most to employment growth.
Inflation at 6.3% y/y and 0.3% m/m in November 2015
Annual CPI inflation rate was recorded at 6.3% in November 2015, up from a 5.8% increase in previous month, according to GeoStat. Overall price changes were driven by price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.2% y/y, +1.58ppts), health (+11.5% y/y, +1.09ppts), furnishings and household equipment (+12.9% y/y, +0.81ppts), and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+9.2% y/y, +0.78ppts). Meanwhile, prices in transport category decreased (-1.6% y/y, -0.19ppts).
Monthly inflation rate was recorded at 0.3% in November 2015. Price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.9% m/m, +0.28ppts), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+1.0% m/m, +0.09ppts), and a price drop in transport category (-1.4% m/m, -0.16ppts) were the major drivers of the monthly inflation dynamics.
International arrivals up 8.4% y/y in November 2015 and up 6.9% y/y in 11M15
Tourist arrivals posted another growth of 8.4% y/y to 0.44mn persons in October 2015, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Increased arrivals from Azerbaijan (+21.9% y/y, 26.4% of total), Turkey (+2.2% y/y, 24.1% of total), and Russia (+7.1% y/y, 12.7% of total) were the major contributors to growth. In 11M15, total arrivals increased 6.9% y/y to 5.43mn persons.
Tax revenues up 10.8% y/y in 11M15
Consolidated budget tax revenues increased 10.2% y/y to GEL 647.6mn in November 2015 and 10.8% y/y to GEL 7.2bn in 11M15, according to the Treasury Service. In 11M15, personal income tax revenues grew 15.3% y/y (27.5% of total), VAT receipts +6.7% y/y (44.6% of total), profit tax receipts +28.5% y/y (12.4% of total), excise tax +6.7% y/y (10.9% of total), and property tax +6.0% y/y (3.5% of total). Receipts from custom duties decreased, but it has a minor share in total tax revenues.
