Highlights

  • Real GDP in the US grew at a 3.2% annualized rate (initial estimate) in 1Q19 after 2.2% growth in 4Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.6% in April 2019, down from 3.8% in previous month.
  • EU19 real GDP growth was 1.2% y/y in 1Q19 same as in 4Q18. Unemployment rate in EU19 was 7.7% in March 2019, down from 7.8% in February 2019.
  • Chinese economy increased by 6.4% y/y in 1Q19.
  • In March 2019, economic growth was 6.2% y/y in Armenia, 6.0% y/y in Georgia, 5.3% y/y in Kazakhstan and -0.1% y/y in Russia, based on preliminary data. In 1Q19, real GDP growth was 3.0% y/y in Azerbaijan, 2.2% in Ukraine and 1.1% y/y in Belarus.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 2.0% in April 2019, up from 1.9% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.7% in April 2019, up from 1.4% in March 2019.
  • In April 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (4.1%), Russia (5.2%), Belarus (5.5%), Ukraine (8.8%) and Turkey (19.5%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.9%), and below the target in Armenia (2.2%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bps to 8.75% in Azerbaijan, by 0.25bps to 9.0% in Kazakhstan, by 0.5bps to 17.5% in Ukraine and has remained unchanged in other countries in April 2019.
  • In April 2019, S&P affirmed the sovereign credit rating of Georgia at BB- and revised the outlook to positive from stable.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.