Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in the US was revised down to an annualized 3.4% y/y (3rd estimate) from 3.5% y/y (2nd estimate) in 3Q18. Unemployment rate was 3.9% in December 2018, up from 3.7% in previous month.
  • Economic growth came in at 1.8% y/y in Russia, 2.2% y/y in Georgia, 3.6% y/y in Armenia and 4.3% y/y in Kazakhstan in November 2018, based on rapid estimates. In 11M18, real GDP growth was 3.2% y/y in Belarus and 1.0% y/y in Azerbaijan. Ukrainian economy grew by 2.8% y/y in 3Q18.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.9% in December 2018, down from 2.2% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.6% in December 2018, down from 1.9% in November 2018.
  • In December 2018, annual inflation was below the target level in Georgia (1.5%), Armenia (1.8%), and Belarus (5.6%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.3%), and above the target in Russia (4.3%), Ukraine (9.8%) and Turkey (20.3%). Annual inflation was 1.7% in Azerbaijan.
  • Monetary policy rate was raised to 7.75% from 7.5% in Russia in December 2018 and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Moody’s upgraded credit rating of Ukraine to Caa1 from Caa2 and changed the outlook to stable in December 2018.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.