Highlights

  • EU19 real GDP grew by 1.8% y/y in 2018. Unemployment rate in EU19 was unchanged at 7.9% in December 2018.
  • China’s economy grew by 6.6% y/y in 2018. The growth was slowed in 2H18.
  • In 2018, economic growth was 5.8% y/y in Armenia, 4.8% y/y in Georgia, 4.1% y/y in Kazakhstan, 3.3% y/y in Ukraine, 3.0% y/y in Belarus, 2.3% y/y in Russia and 1.4% y/y in Azerbaijan, based on rapid estimates.
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.6% in January 2019, down from 1.9% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.4% in January 2019, down from 1.6% in December 2019.
  • In January 2019, annual inflation was below the target level in Armenia (0.6%) and Georgia (2.2%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (5.2%), and above the target in Russia (5.0%), Belarus (5.8%), Ukraine (9.2%) and Turkey (20.4%). Annual inflation was 1.7% in Azerbaijan.
  • YTD, monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.75% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 5.75% in Armenia, by 0.5bp to 9.25% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries.
  • Moody’s upgraded credit rating of Russia to Baa3 from Ba1 and changed the outlook to stable on 8 February 2019.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine