Highlights

  • US real GDP growth in 4Q18 was revised down to an annualized 2.2% (3rd estimate), from 2.6% initial estimate. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8% in March 2019.
  • In February 2019, economic growth accelerated and came in at 7.6% y/y in Armenia, 4.6% y/y in Georgia, 4.3% y/y in Kazakhstan and 2.1% y/y in Russia, based on rapid estimates. In 2M19, real GDP growth was 3.0% y/y in Azerbaijan and 0.8% y/y in Belarus.
  • According to the IMF’s 2019 World Economic Outlook, real GDP growth projections for 2019 remained unchanged for Georgia (4.6%), Ukraine (2.7%) and Russia (1.6%), while it was reduced for Armenia (-0.2ppts to 4.6%), Azerbaijan (-0.2ppts to 3.4%), Belarus (-1.3ppts to 1.8%) and Turkey (-2.9ppts to -2.5%); real GDP growth projection was revised upwards for Kazakhstan (+0.1ppts to 3.2%).  
  • Annual inflation in the US was 1.9% in March 2019, up from 1.5% in previous month. Based on the Eurostat flash estimate, annual inflation in EU19 was 1.4% in March 2019, down from 1.5% in February 2019.
  • In March 2019, annual inflation was above the target level in Georgia (3.7%), Russia (5.3%), Belarus (5.8%), Ukraine (8.6%) and Turkey (19.7%); inflation was within the target range in Kazakhstan (4.8%), and below the target in Armenia (1.9%).
  • Monetary policy rate was cut by 0.25bp to 6.5% in Georgia, by 0.25bp to 9.0% in Azerbaijan and has remained unchanged in other countries in March 2019.

Please see the full report for detailed coverage of the fixed income markets of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.